World Issues 2

China targeting on 8% GDP next year

China is targeting 8% GDP for the next year amid fragile economy recovery. The double digit target may not be good at the moment due to the rising risk of bubbles in stock, real estate and commodity price. But economist at Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney, Alaister Chan, said that the official target of 8% may overshoot in the next year. Furthermore, he said, it can be easily for China to achieve it as compared to this year. In addition, China’s bank will probably extend 9.8 trillian yuan ($1.4 trillion) of new loan this year from the total of the first 11 months that was 9.21 trillion yuan (Bloomberg.com).

U.S.-Brokered Climate Deal May Give Obama More Sway in Senate

The reason behind the “indecision” of US President Barrack Obama in the climate talks recently is probably because he wants to win over members of the senate who don’t want to impose similar restrictions i.e through emission cuts on American companies. I found that US’s stand on climate issue which was apparently opposed to earlier offer of China and India on emission curb has a political interest. Senators tried to oppose with UN rules that might hurt U.S businesses’ ability to compete in the global market. According to Senator Benjamin Cardin, a Maryland Democrat, the agreement (Copenhagen Accord) would help US to politically deal with American manufacturers that are at a disadvantages from UN policies on carbon curbs. The plan calls for another year of talks for a treaty to tackle global warming by capping emissions and expanding the $120 billion carbon market. A U.S. law allowing carbon trading would move the market’s “center of gravity” from London to New York and Chicago (Bloomberg.com).

Abu Mardhiyyah

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World Issues 1

Protest in Taiwan

Thousands of Taiwanese protested to China’s envoy meeting with Taiwan negotiator for trade talks in Taiwan recently. Some of the people in the Island are still thinking that the bilateral negotiation on economy between China and Taiwan may pave the way to unification. The demonstration that has been sponsored by Democratic Progressive Party was organized purposively to pass the message to the President of Taiwan, Ma Ying-jeou, that his signature on policy of tightening economic links with Beijing is threatening the well-being of Taiwan's people and paving the way for a Chinese takeover.

US Economy

US household expenditures are recorded to improve slightly by 0.7 per cent and incomes climbed up to 0.5 per cent. This is factored by the government’s easy monetary policy whereby the interest rate is pushed down to spur lending and also combined with discounts by merchants like Best Buy .co that may encourage the consumers to keep buying in coming months. Moreover, consumers’ confidences also take a major concern of this positive growth. The slowdown in the pace of job cuts and higher stock price are boosting consumer sentiment. All of these signs giving to retailers and real-estate agents reasons to anticipate business will improve in 2010.

Abu Mardhiyyah

READ MORE - World Issues 1

Copenhagen Conference: Short comments

“Climate stays gloomy”

The Copenhagen conference had reached to its final session whereby many issues were remained disputed. But some said Copenhagen’s results are a modest step in the global bid to curb greenhouse gasses that threaten to melt glaciers and flood coastlines. In fact, China Foreign Minister said, Yang Jeichi, Copenhagen had produced significant and positive results. In addition, Yang said the positive outcomes of the conference were that it upheld the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" recognized by the Kyoto Protocol, and made a step forward in promoting binding emissions cuts for developed countries and voluntary mitigating actions by developing countries.

I thought it can be significant and positive only to China, US and some other developed countries since they do not have a legal binding on emission reduction but just currently need to pay for the developing countries some sort of “compensation” to their emission activities that affect those countries. The Copenhagen meeting also left many critics from the others where many had said it was a failure meeting and no much improvement was shown from the previous meeting. The giants still want to bid for their “national interest” by ignoring this major issue. This drama was expected even since before the meeting held. It’s so embarrassing.

The result of this conference may not be limited to the failure of international efforts to climate change mitigation but it had also indirectly affected the EU and UN carbon prices. It was expected that the carbon price may fall since the Copenhagen climate deal didn’t set targets to boost demands for permits. It is very important to know the agreed targets since it amount to a bunch of negotiation ranges that investors already factored in, but after the result heard, European Union carbon-dioxide allowances, with trading volume of $92 billion a year, will probably drop about 7 percent as markets open tomorrow in response to the accord, said Trevor Sikorski, emissions analyst for Barclays Plc’s investment bank

Follows are the summary of Copenhagen Accord that has been unanimously agreed so far by US President Barrack Obama, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and South African President Jacob Zuma (Sources; BBC news):

Legal Status

The Accord, reached between the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa, contains no reference to a legally binding agreement, as some developing countries and climate activists wanted.

Neither is there a deadline for transforming it into a binding deal, though UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said it needed to be turned into a legally binding treaty next year.

The accord was merely "recognised" by the 193 nations at the Copenhagen summit, rather than approved, which would have required unanimous support. It is not clear whether it is a formal UN deal.

Temperature Rise

The text recognises the need to limit global temperatures rising no more than 2C (3.6F) above pre-industrial levels.

The language in the text shows that 2C is not a formal target, just that the group "recognises the scientific view that" the temperature increase should be held below this figure.

However, the accord does not identify a year by which carbon emissions should peak, a position resisted by some richer developing nations.

Countries are asked to spell out by 1 February next year their pledges for curbing carbon emissions by 2020. The deal does not spell out penalties for any country that fails to meet its promise.

Financial Aid

The deal promises to deliver $30bn (£18.5bn) of aid for developing nations over the next three years. It outlines a goal of providing $100bn a year by 2020 to help poor countries cope with the impacts of climate change.

The accord says the rich countries will jointly mobilise the $100bn, drawing on a variety of sources: "public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources of finance."

A green climate fund will also be established under the deal. It will support projects in developing countries related to mitigation, adaptation, "capacity building" and technology transfer.

Emission Transparency

The pledges of rich countries will come under "rigorous, robust and transparent" scrutiny under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

In the accord, developing countries will submit national reports on their emissions pledges under a method "that will ensure that national sovereignty is respected."

Pledges on climate mitigation measures seeking international support will be recorded in a registry.

Review of Progress

The implementation of the Copenhagen Accord will be reviewed by 2015. This will take place about a year-and-a-half after the next scientific assessment of the global climate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

However, if, in 2015, delegates wanted to adopt a new, lower target on global average temperature, such as 1.5C rather than 2C, it would be too late.

READ MORE - Copenhagen Conference: Short comments

Final Day: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Final day: Roundup Discussion

Failure is difficult to say and success is even hardly to imagine but hope is still remained in there. This statement can be best to describe the upshot of final negotiation in Copenhagen yesterday. Hardly to believe but that is exactly what has happen in almost two week discussion in Bella Centre, Denmark. Only a piecemeal of consensus has been achieved and certainly many other things remain ambiguous and unclear. Some people said that behind the scene it is still has a positive sign in where this climate talks was able to attract many premier leaders in the world to attend and show their concern about this issues. Nevertheless, many of them were also frustrated about the intrusive outcome of the negotiations. In addition, many delegates requested for politically binding contract about the pledges that announced so far throughout the conference. But, as we have expected, the conditional pledges might not able to be on the list of the climate accord if the giants are still not kneeling on the floor. Follows are the short comment from the world leaders about the conference:

YVO DE BOER, HEAD OF THE U.N. CLIMATE CHANGE SECRETARIAT

"The mountain goes on and on, it seems. I do think we need to see how this text is received by the broader group of countries. It's great that small group of leaders gets together and tries to advance the process. But ultimately the way things work here it has to be acceptable to every country."

"If this makes it through the meeting in a couple of hours' time then I see it as a modest success. We could have achieved more."

FRENCH PRESIDENT, NICOLAS SARKOZY

"The text we have is not perfect.. If we had no deal, that would mean that 2 countries as important as India and China would be liberated from any type of contract....the United States, which is not in Kyoto would be free of any type of contract. That's why a contract is absolutely vital."

BRITISH PRIME MINISTER, GORDON BROWN

"I came here to Copenhagen wanting the most ambitious deal possible. We have made a start. I believe that what we need to follow up on quickly is ensuring a legally binding outcome."

GERMAN CHANCELLOR, ANGELA MERKEL

"The decision has been very difficult for me. We have done one step, we have hoped for several more."

EUROPEAN COMMISSION SPOKESWOMAN

"A deal is better than no deal. What could be agreed today, falls far below our expectations. But It keeps our goals and ambitions alive. It addresses the needs of developing countries. It was the only deal available in Copenhagen."

CO-AUTHOR OF A U.S. SENATE CLIMATE BILL, SENATOR JOHN KERRY

"This can be a catalyzing moment. It's a powerful signal to see President Obama, Premier Wen, Prime Minister Singh, and President Zuma agree on a meeting of the minds. These are the four horsemen of a climate change solution. With this in hand, we can work to pass domestic legislation early next year to bring us across the finish line."

HEAD OF CHINA'S CLIMATE DELEGATION, XIE ZHENHUA

"The meeting has had a positive result, everyone should be happy. After negotiations both sides have managed to preserve their bottom line. For the Chinese this was our sovereignty and our national interest."

BRAZIL'S CLIMATE CHANGE AMBASSADOR SERGIO SERRA

"It's very disappointing I would say but it is not a failure...if we agree to meet again and deal with the issues that are still pending."

"We have a big job ahead to avoid climate change through effective emissions reduction targets and this was not done here."

JOHN SAUVEN, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, GREENPEACE UK

"The city of Copenhagen is a crime scene tonight, with the guilty men and women fleeing to the airport. There are no targets for carbon cuts and no agreement on a legally binding treaty.

"It seems there are too few politicians in this world capable of looking beyond the horizon of their own narrow self-interest, let alone caring much for the millions of people who are facing down the threat of climate change."

ALBERT BINGER, FROM GRENADA, SENIOR ADVISER TO THE ALLIANCE OF SMALL ISLAND STATES

"It seems they didn't want to make any hard decisions and they found some sort of compromise. But I don't think it does the job. The science is telling us we need much more cuts. We need definitive cuts, we need a peaking (year), we need things that people can be held accountable to."

ROB STAVINS, PROF OF BUSINESS AND GOVT AT HARVARD UNIVERSITY

"The most striking thing, it's incredible, virtually unprecedented, is that heads of state sat down in a room together and did the negotiations themselves."

"It's less than many people had hoped for and expected even two weeks ago. What was needed was to bring the rapidly growing economies and that's what was achieved."

PEW CENTER ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, ELLIOT DIRINGER

"If accepted by other parties, this tentative agreement would be an important step forward. As President Obama said, it's well short of what's ultimately needed. But it would provide a reasonable basis for negotiating a fair and effective climate treaty. It would for the first time secure political pledges by all the major emerging economies to curb their emissions."

STEVE SAWYER, SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL

"Standing on its own a political declaration like that doesn't do much other than paper over the fact that that governments have failed to keep the promises they made to each other (in Bali, Indonesia two years ago at the launch of the two-year climate talks meant ot agree a climate pact)."

JOHN ASHE, CHAIR OF KYOTO PROTOCOL TALKS UNDER U.N.

"Given where we started and the expectations for this conference, anything less than a legally binding and agreed outcome falls far short of the mark."

"On the other hand though I'm a bit of a realist so I do realize that perhaps the bar was set too high and the fact that there's now a deal ... perhaps gives us something to hang our hat on. I hope it sets the stage for serious work in 2010 so that we can conclude ... perhaps as soon as June, failing that by December 2010."

NANCY PELOSI, SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

"The agreement reached tonight in Copenhagen is a breakthrough in the global effort to combat the climate crisis."

TIM JONES, CLIMATE OFFICER, WORLD DEVELOPMENT MOVEMENT, ANTI-POVERTY LOBBY GROUP

"This summit has been in complete disarray from start to finish, culminating in a shameful and monumental failure that has condemned millions of people around the world to untold suffering.

"To say that this deal is in any way historic or meaningful is to completely misrepresent the fact that this deal is devoid of real content. It is actually meaningless."

NNIMMO BASSEY, CHAIR OF FRIENDS OF THE EARTH INTERNATIONAL

"Copenhagen has been an abject failure. Justice has not been done. By delaying action, rich countries have condemned millions of the world's poorest people to hunger, suffering and loss of life as climate change accelerates. The blame for this disastrous outcome is squarely on the developed nations."

CARL POPE, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE SIERRA CLUB

"The world's nations have come together and concluded a historic if incomplete agreement to begin tackling global warming. President Obama and the rest of the world paid a steep price here in Copenhagen because of obstructionism in the United States Senate."

JOHN LANCHBERY, BIRDLIFE INTERNATIONAL

"It sounds very vague. There's no next step, nothing to link through to how to get a final deal done."

FRED KRUPP, HEAD OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE FUND

"Today's agreement takes the first important steps toward true transparency and accountability in an international climate agreement. The sooner the U.S. speaks through Senate legislation, the sooner we can set the terms of engagement for talks to come."

LEADER OF WWF GLOBAL CLIMATE INITIATIVE, KIM CARSTENSEN

"They tell us it's over but it's not. Copenhagen produced a snapshot of what leaders already promised before they arrived here. The biggest challenge, turning the political will into a legally binding agreement has moved to Mexico. What was good about Copenhagen was the level of national pledges for climate action in most countries. We are disappointed but remain hopeful."

JAKE SCHMIDT OF THE NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE COUNCIL

The deal will "get big countries moving in the right direction" on reducing their carbon emissions

References: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5BH4VN20091218

To know the detail of the Copenhagen accord that has been unanimously agreed so far by US President Barrack Obama, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and South African President Jacob Zuma, please download to this link: Copenhagen Accord

READ MORE - Final Day: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Day 11: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Day 11: Roundup Discussion

The Copenhagen conference almost heads to its final day. But, emission cut offered by rich countries are far below than the expectation and even make the world remain in danger. The Guardian had revealed a confidential UN analysis that the present offer of emission cut would still upraise a global warming by an average of three degrees in which according to Nicholas Stern, Economist for British Government, will result in tens to hundreds of million more people being flooded each year due to rising sea levels. Moreover, the Science shows that it causes also to the collapse of the Amazon rainforest, crippling water shortages across South America and Australia and the near-extinction of tropical coral reefs. In spite, those are just the beginning of the world catastrophe from the climate change effects. Nicholas Sarkozy has called for all parties to jointly commit in negotiation process for mitigating to the climate change effects as he insisted the bad implications may be faced by every single person on the earth.

Further more, the developed countries request a transparency from the developing countries on the measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of emission curbs. Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State, insisted it in her talk in Copenhagen though many developing countries rejected this proposal. In addition to her talk, US will to prepare for jointly efforts with other countries in mobilising the climate fund for almost 200 billion of US dollar annually by 2020.

The present discussion of climate talks would be on two-track basis; the Kyoto Protocol and the climate change convention. In recent news on this discussion had found that the developed countries finally had given up to absolutely abandoned the Kyoto Protocol that was certainly not in favour of their interest. At this junction, the proponents of Kyoto Protocol which majority stand for developing countries won the first battle.

READ MORE - Day 11: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Day 10: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Day 10: Roundup Discussion

The arrival of Gordon Brown, British Prime Minister two days earlier than other leaders in Copenhagen talks was to reduce the contentious situation among the negotiators in there. The resolutions need to be achieved due to its imperative of the future of human well-being. If there is no serious effort to cope the climate change effects, the well-being of the creation would be at vulnerable condition and the cost of mitigating it would lead to even much more higher than current expenditure in which according to Brown, it may cause to a reduction of 20 per cent of national income.

There is an attempt by some parties to reject Kyoto Protocol. The developing countries urged the rich countries to stick with their Kyoto obligations which is by soon would enter to a second round starting from 2013. Yvo de Boer, UN executive secretary of UNFCCC, asked the parties involved in this climate talks to remain pursuit to Kyoto Protocol as the new agreement to replace it would rather take many years before it can be ratified. Kyoto Protocol has been proposed since 1997 and come into action in 2005 after a long-term negotiation went around. The hanging status of Kyoto Protocol at present was described by India’s environment Minister, Jairam Ramesh as someone in intensive care if not dead.

On the other hand, U.S which is seem to be inactive in the climate change discussion has shrivel some strain of people through a John Kerry’s statement, US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on the US’s stand in climate talks recently. He gave assurance that U.S would pass climate change bill by 2010 if the negotiation in the conference is successful. U.S is one of the developed countries who were abide by the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 but later rejected it during the early time of George W.Bush administration. The emission reduction that US has announced so far was around 3 to 4 per cent which is absolutely nothing to achieve the target of climate change fall from this larger emitter in the world.

Japan had announced to provide 15 billion of U.S dollars to the short-term financing of climate fund, amount that is higher than 9.6 billion of U.S dollars that EU pledge to give on the same period. However, they held it as a conditional pledge where the thriving negotiation in Copenhagen that may produce fair political accord would be a factor for the pledge to be valid or work.

Abu Mardhiyyah

International Islamic University of Malaysia

READ MORE - Day 10: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Day 9: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Day 9: Roundup Discussion

There is an urgent calling for the world leaders to come and play their role in this climate talks. The Australian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd (left picture) as well as the other political leaders have warned that the negotiation might reach to a deadlock. For more than a week that the conference has gone and just remained few days to a deadline, no conclusive agreement has been achieved but rather a “surprise draft” that was in favour of developed countries distributed in the conference yesterday. It contained three option of long term climate aid but according to Quamrul Chowdhury, a Bangladeshi envoy who coordinates the Group of Least Developed Countries on Finance, none of the options include any financial commitment. The poorer countries say they would not agree with any drafts without financial aid. Followed by this situation, Jairam Ramesh, India’s Environment Minister has said that ABASIC (African, Brazil, South Africa, India and China) have drawn up a text for a new global agreement and would put it out if any other attempt to come out with a “surprise draft” happen again.

On the other hand, the arrival of Japan Prime Minister was expected to pledge a climate fund amounts to 10 billion of U.S dollar over three years including steps to protect biodiversity. This amount was a higher than the initial announcement which Japan have made around 9.6 billion of U.S dollar to help the developing countries.

Abu Mardhiyyah

International Islamic University of Malaysia

READ MORE - Day 9: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Rich-poor deadlock in Copenhagen: by Martin Khor

Entering its second week, just days before the arrival of the political leaders, the Copenhagen climate conference is in the grip of a serious deadlock.

Developing countries, led by the Africans, on Monday insisted that the conference place top priority on the developed countries' emission reduction commitments, and on the continuation of the Kyoto protocol (KP), which is the legally binding treaty under which the commitments are to be made.

For a whole morning, the work in several "contact groups" stopped while the developing countries' leaders met with the Danish climate change minister Connie Hedegaard, who apparently agreed that the KP track of the Copenhagen talks would be given due attention. She also tried to allay fears that the Danes would throw in their own new draft for the heads of governments to consider and adopt on 18 December.

Fears and suspicions abound in the conference, and the stakes are high. Many contentious issues are still far from resolution and no one knows how much the gaps can be closed in the next days.

The first issue is the shape and fate of the future global climate regime, which was at the heart of the developing countries' actions on Monday. The developing countries are outraged by the now clear attempt by developed countries that are members of the Kyoto protocol to desert it. There is wide misconception that the KP expires in 2012 and that a new agreement is being negotiated to replace it. In fact, the KP has a first "commitment period" under which developed countries are legally bound to cut emissions by 5.2% by 2012 compared with 1990 levels. The first period ends in 2012 and the protocol mandates members to enter a second period after that. In the past four years the countries have been negotiating emission reduction figures for this second period.

When Europe two months ago said that it wanted a new "single agreement", it was indicating it would join Australia, Japan and others to jump ship from KP to a new treaty in the UN climate convention, which would include the United States, a KP non-member.

The US in turn indicated that in the new climate system there would not be internationally binding emission commitments, but instead what NGOs term a "pledge and review" system. This involves countries stating what their parliaments or cabinets are able to undertake, and their performance being reviewed by other countries. This "bottom up" approach is contrary to the top-down KP system in which countries decide how deep a cut is needed in aggregate, and then negotiate what each country will have to do.

Movement towards agreement on the KP second period has been glacially slow despite four years of talks and the deadline for concluding the talks at the end of the Copenhagen conference. This, together with the now stated intention that several if not all the developed country parties don't want to continue with Kyoto, has angered the developing countries.

The danger of a "bottom up" approach of merely collecting what each country can do is shown by the extremely low level of commitments so far. According to a widely used estimate by the Aosis (alliance of small island states), the aggregate of the announced national targets of developed countries (including the US) is only a 13%-19% emissions cut by 2020 compared with 1990. After counting "offsets" and other mechanisms, the real domestic effort is significantly lower than this. This is far below the 40-plus per cent that developing countries are demanding, in line with recent scientific findings.

We thus face the shocking prospect of the developed countries downgrading their mitigation commitment both in terms of the legal status of the commitment and the rate of emission reduction, at a time when the world is so concerned about the need to act on climate change.

On top of this, the developed countries are attempting to shift the burden of adjustment to the developing countries and in ways not agreed to when the mandate of the present negotiations was agreed to in Bali two years ago.

In the most glaring example of this, the developed countries have proposed that Copenhagen adopts the goal of a 50% cut in global emissions by 2050 (compared with 1990) while they would themselves cut by 80%. This implies that developing countries have to cut their emissions by 20%. However, this would entail rich countries undertaking a 80% cut per capita while developing countries cut by 60% per capita (as their population will double in this period while the population in developed countries will be stable, according to UN projections).

In this scenario, developing countries would have to cap their emissions at very low levels, which would drastically constrain their economic performance at current technology levels. It is true that the climate convention promises financial and technology transfers to the developing countries but this has remained on paper so far. The way the talks are going in Copenhagen, the prospect for future technology transfer is not bright, while long-term finance is still a promise.

At Bali it was envisaged that there would be a three-part bargain on mitigation. First and most important, those developed countries that are members of the KP would take on new commitments for a second period with deep enough emission cuts. Second, the US would agree to a comparable effort. Third, the developing countries would for the first time take mitigation actions that are "measurable, reportable and verifiable", supported by finance and technology.

With the first leg of this bargain now facing collapse as the developed countries jump ship from the KP, and with the US taking on such weak tentative target (about a 4%-7% cut by 2020 from 1990 levels), the world faces the prospect of an almost unbelievably low target by the developed countries as a whole. "We will be the laughing stock of the world come 18 December if these numbers are not raised," predicts the chair of the group negotiating the KP.

The developing countries have the most to lose if Copenhagen does not come up with a credible conclusion. They are thus demanding that those countries that put most of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and that promised to take the lead in global actions to combat climate change live up to that promise in Copenhagen. This explains why they requested the survival of the Kyoto protocol, and the commitment to credible emission cuts by each country be top priorities at Copenhagen.

The next few days will tell if Copenhagen ends as a partial success, with enough progress to propel another year of talks to success, or as an utter failure, with the unravelling of the global climate regime amid a finger pointing blame game.

This article taken from :

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cif-green/2009/dec/15/developed-world-copenhagen-deadlock

READ MORE - Rich-poor deadlock in Copenhagen: by Martin Khor

Day 8: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Day 8: Roundup Discussion

India has made a bold statement on their stand for this climate talks. They would make some limitations on the kind of commitment such as to reject a concept of a “peaking year” of emission due to many development in rural area such as expanding electricity are planned to be done, and also they do not accept any international scrutiny of voluntary domestic measure especially for voluntarily group unfunded by international finance. However, they have given some flexibility to these unsupported efforts to monitoring based on the international guideline under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which is also applicable to the supported efforts for their MRV (Monitoring, Reporting and Verification) in India.

Beside that, White house has made announcement on their proposal of funding 350 Million US Dollars over five years to supply developing nations with clean energy technology including sun-powered lanterns, supply of cleaner equipment and appliances and etc. This in-kind fund gives much benefits to developing countries in which some of them do not have such technology to invent it. US only finance for 85 million from this total fund and the remaining comes from Australia, Britain, Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland.

In related to the climate fund, Norway and Mexico proposed a Green Fund to finance climate efforts in developing countries. They suggested that the funds should come from public budget and auctioning of emissions credit or allowances. Tentatively, the fund would start around 10 billion per year by 2013 and increase to 30 to 40 billion dollar by 2020.

Abu Mardhiyyah

International Islamic University of Malaysia

READ MORE - Day 8: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Day 7: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Day 7: Roundup Discussion

The announcement made by US and EU on the emission cut does not impress a lot to the scientists. It is too low to achieve the target that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has set which is ranging from 25-40% to keep global temperature increase below 2 degrees (3.5 F), as compared to the emission level that US and EU pledge to cut around 3 to 4% and 20% respectively by 2020 from 1990 levels. IPCC’s emission cut target does not include the highly potential threat of methane from the Arctic’s thawing permafrost which may require further emission cut if it is counted for reckoning it. Therefore, IPCC has recommended the climate talks should focus on the long-term commitment rather than the short-term which is unlikely to be a main concern of rich countries over the demand from the developing countries. This concern is exactly goes in line with the opinion of Di-Aiping and He Yafei who observe that the rich countries must look forward and provide a long term financing mechanism to developing countries if they are really serious to mitigate climate change problems. This statement is certainly gives much more pressure to developed countries along this climate talks. In addition to that, African Union threatens to scupper the deal if their concerns including the demands for compensation for the effect of global warming are not well-addressed by the rich countries. This intimidation has received assurance from China where they won’t sign any climate change agreement in Copenhagen if the African requests are not met accordingly.

On the other hand, among the countries that are seriously affected by the climate changes is Bangladesh. In this climate talks, Bangladesh request 15% of any climate fund should go to them as to cope with climate change problems that is approximately 15% of world climate change victims is living in their country. When the fund offered to Bangladesh by development partners on bilateral basis to fight climate change becomes operational, the government might let the World Bank manage the fund for a short term as per a condition set by the development partners.

Abu Mardhiyyah

International Islamic University of Malaysia

READ MORE - Day 7: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Day 6: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Day 6: Roundup Discussion

In summary of sixth day discussion of COP15, Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aiping (right picture), who represents the Group of 77 (G-77) that walked out in anger from a consultation meeting with UN representatives last Friday has made a clear statement that he is not satisfied with the amount of fund that EU has pledge to give to developing countries for their emission reduction activities. Moreover, the fund which is allocated for the short-term period only starting from 2010 to 2012 shows the failure of EU to provide a long term financing mechanism, in where the Chinese vice Foreign Minister, He Yafei is also worried about.

Africans' Demand

On the other hand, 50 African countries have proposed a demand of 5 per cent from the rich countries’ GDP together with the request of emission reduction from 50 per cent by 2017 which they have made before to 65 per cent by 2020. Undoubtedly, it is very ambitious demand from these 50 African countries that lead by Meles Zenawi, Ethiopian Prime Minister and African Union Climate negotiator, but certainly it is really tough to developed countries to accept it. It is not because they are not affordable to follow it but the chronology of this conference before and current situations have proven that they are not yet ready to scarify their interest for the world interest. People around the world are just listening to the promise or hint of promise by the leaders of developed countries but yet no significant efforts and scarify have been made so far to show the seriousness of developed countries to address these climate change issues. In addition to that, Meles Zenawi has shown his concern and worry for this conference is not on emissions per se but rather to the financial aids that the developed countries will to give up for developing countries. Africa has demanded billions of dollars in compensation from rich countries to cope with climate change. It contributes just four percent of the world's total greenhouse gases, yet it is the continent most ravaged by the effects of global warming. Thus, the fund is really needed to cope with the climate change at this continent. The costs of this effort, according to a study by the UK-based Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, are expected to increase by more than 50 to 100 billions of dollars a year by 2020.

Abu Mardhiyyah

International Islamic University of Malaysia

READ MORE - Day 6: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Day 5: Short report (COP15 UN Climate Change Conference)

Day 5: Roundup discussion

The fifth day of discussion in UN Climate Change conference in Copenhagen has shown some progress in term of amount of funding that the developed countries like US or EU is willing to commit for this effort of climate change mitigation in the developing countries. At this junction, EU has eventually agreed on Friday to commit 2.4 billion euro (3.6 billion US) a year until 2012 to help poor countries particularly in Africa in adaptation to the effects of global warming. However, the smaller Eastern EU is reluctant to contribute into this fund due to their struggle to combat the implication of economic meltdown like increasing government debt and high unemployment which become priority to be addressed in their country more than the climate change issues. Out of this total fund, countries like Germany, Britain and French have contributed almost 20 per cent for each of them to this fund, in which according to Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, is major boost to the talks in this conference. In addition, EU has pledged to cut its emission by 30 per cent of 1990 levels by 2020 but with a condition that other leading polluters like China and US have to make comparable commitments first. This is according to the statement made by EU Commission President, Jose Manuel Barroso recently. Other countries like Japan has also made their pledge as conditional in where if the Kyoto Protocol is extended without setting emission reduction goals to US and China, they will back out of country pledge (25 per cent cut in carbon emission by 2020 compared with 1990 level).

Further detail, you may go to this link

Abu Mardhiyyah

International Islamic University of Malaysia

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Copenhagen: World's Leaders discussion on Climate Change Mitigation

Any information about the conference and latest info, please click this link

I try my best to update the latest info on the discussion going around in this conference from time to time and try to make summary on it..the discussion has started since 6 days before, the debate still going on and no conclusive solution has yet been made so far but many developed countries are under pressured from the urge of developing countries (G-77) lead by Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping, negotiator for 130 developing countries, to provide such considerable amount of fund to be spent on adaptation to and mitigation of global warming in developing countries. For your information, the conference in brief is initiated to culminate years of negotiation which is centered on two pillars: emissions reductions and financial aid for developing countries to adapt to climate changes....thereby, will the EU,US, Japan and other developed countries accept this negotiation and its objectives thereof...??? let's wait and see the result........stay up with me..

Read this article to get some idea why the COP15 is very important....

Trends in international climate research since the IPCC’s latest report

One of the trends of climate research is that it increasingly spreads into other areas than natural science, technology and economics. Social and humanistic research has increasingly begun to address the consequences for society and humans.

Ministry of Climate and Energy of Denmark

Climate research in recent years has to a very great degree supported the overall conclusions of the IPCC’s latest synthesis report: that global warming is a reality, and that a significant factor is the emission of greenhouse gases as a result of human activities. If anything, there is a trend towards a view that the IPCC’s predictions were too cautious. One example is the Arctic sea ice, which in recent years has seen seasonal melting at a far greater speed than was predicted in the IPCC’s latest synthesis report. The same applies to the amount of ice that has melted from the Greenland ice sheet.

Another example is the annual Global Carbon Budget (an estimate of the quantity of greenhouse gases emitted, and how much is being absorbed by the sea or disappearing from the atmosphere by other means), which is compiled by the Global Carbon Project. In September 2008 the budget for 2007 was published. It showed that the quantity of greenhouses gases is increasing faster than in even the most carbon-intensive scenario in the IPCC’s standard scenarios from 2001. At present work is being carried out in scientific circles on new standard scenarios for the IPCC’s next report, which is to show in particular how global greenhouse gas emissions and thereby global warming can be restricted.

Another trend is for climate research increasingly to spread into areas other than natural science, technology and economics. At the same time as global warming has become the subject of global political and commercial focus, social and humanistic research has increasingly begun to address the consequences of a changing climate for society and humans.

http://en.cop15.dk/climate+facts/research/trends+in+international+climate+research

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Talk: Climate Change and Development in the 21st Century

Kulliyyah of Economics and Management Sciences, IIUM

And

Academic Staff Association, IIUM

Cordially invite you to a

SPECIAL TALK

Topic: Climate Change and Development in the 21^st Century

Speaker:Dr. Jomo K.S.

Assistant Secretary General for Economic Development, United Nations' Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), New York

At

11.00 am -12.30 pm, Tuesday, 8^th December

Conference Room, Level 3, KENMS.

****************************************************

Jomo K. S. was Professor in the Applied Economics Department, Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya until November 2004, and was on the Board of the United Nations Research Institute on Social Development (UNRISD), Geneva (2002-4). He is Founder Chair of IDEAs, International Development Economics Associates (www.ideaswebsite.org). In 2007, he was awarded the Wassily Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought. During 2008-2009 he serves as adviser to the President of the 63^rd UN General Assembly and a member of the (Stiglitz) Commission of Experts on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System.

He received his tertiary education at Yale and Harvard and has taught at USM (1974), Harvard (1974-5), Yale (1977), UKM (1977-82), UM(1982-2004), and Cornell (1993). He has also been a Visiting Fellow at Cambridge University (1987-8; 1991-2) and was Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, NUS (2004).He has authored over 35 monographs, edited over 50 books and translated 11 volumes besides writing many academic papers and articles for the media. He is on the editorial boards of several learned journals.

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